"Time Series Weather Prediction - Higher or Lower w/ % accuracy."

Eric005

Hello,

I'm a fairly new RapidMiner user, so many thanks in advance for your assistance. I'm trying to set up an example for our team whereby we take windowed data and create a 'higher' or 'lower' prediction for forward periods. So for example, if the last 5 day's temperatures have been 28,29,34,29,30 degrees, we would like to know if the target period is likely to be higher or lower than the last period of the data (30 in this case), and if possible with what probability for an accurate target. So, to reiterate, we are not trying to estimate a future point temperature, just simply if it'll be higher or lower than what we've recently seen.

Thus far, I've successfully set up a simple linear regress model, but where my knowledge stops is how to qualify the forecasting performance according to the higher or lower target value. Could someone indicate a method for this?

Here are photos of what I have thus far.

Thanks!

Thomas_Ott

The short answer is yes, you can easily predict the up or down trends but getting there will likely require Optmization and maybe a SVM with an RBF Kernel.

Go to my website and download the sample process at the end of the tutorial here:http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/building-an-ai-financial-market-model-lesson-iv/

Then add your data and play around with it.

Good luck!

Eric005

Thanks Thomas, much appreciated!

Eric005

Tom,

Do you happen to have the lesson 5 example from your site in a rapidminer or XML doc? Thanks!

Eric

Thomas_Ott

I haven't rewritten lesson 5 yet and it's very very old and doesn't make sense anymore. I don;t think I have the XML anymore either.